Showing posts with label Security. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Security. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2015

Modi's Central Asia Visit: Russia could welcome the India Factor

 South Asia Monitor (Jun 12, 2015)

Modi's Central Asia Visit analysed in global security and strategic backdrop with special focus on Afghanistan. And why emergence of India as a player in Central Asia presents an opportunity to Russia to balance out things vis-a-vis China. Read more

Monday, June 22, 2015

Myanmar Operation: Why Pakistan is so rattled

South Asia Monitor and Indian Defence Review (19/20 June, 2015)

Read why Pakistan's much sported small nuclear weapons can't deter India from a Special Forces action in POK, how India's current Nuclear Doctrine will play out if Pak tries using small nukes. And Pak Generals know that. A Myanmar kind of Operation inside POK, even a small one, can cost Pak Army its domestic clout and Much More

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Afghan peace process: Marred by short-sightedness (South Asia Monitor: March 12, 2015)

"The new peace process conceived by President Ashraf Ghani ultimately aims at reaching a power sharing deal with the Afghan Taliban. This latest peace process is as superficial as the previous ones because it does not demand an ideological course correction from Taliban. The Afghan Taliban remains committed to ultra-radical version of Deobandi Islam and had championed a barbaric medieval theocratic state in Afghanistan during its days in power where public flogging, stoning, beheadings and iconoclasm were perpetrated by the state machinery. Today the Islamic State is repeating just that in Iraq and Syria."

"The importance of such an ideological declaration is evident from the experience of Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. Though the Muslim Brotherhood had renounced the use of violent means to achieve political ends as early as 1949 and was a key participant in the Tahrir Square agitation against the Hosni Mubarak regime, when it came to power after participating in the 2012 presidential elections it was soon found trying to impose an Islamist Constitution and its members were found to be indulging in attacks on Christians and other minorities. Leading Middle East expert Yasmine El Rashidi described this as an “Islamist Coup”. Soon Egypt’s powerful military had to intervene to save the country from plunging into utter chaos. All this happened because despite giving up violence and participating in the electoral process, the Muslim Brotherhood remained ideologically committed to the cause of establishing a theocratic Islamist State." Read Full Article Here

Counter terrorism lessons (South Asia Monitor: Jan 22, 2015)

A closer look into urban guerrilla tactics employed by Paris attackers, their jihadists past, comparisons with Lindt Cafe incident and much more. Read More

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Islamic State arrives in Pakistan: Implications for South Asia (South Asia Monitor: Dec 14, 2014)

Article discusses Islamic State's alliances with groups like Jundullah (Pakistan), prospects of more jehadists swearing allegiance to Islamic State, challenges IS alliances pose on tactical level and evolving threat to India and Iran. Read full article here

Time Pakistan realised futility of proxy war (South Asia Monitor: Nov 16, 2014)

Article discusses in detail the shift in India's national security policy as articulated by new NSA Ajit Doval from "credible minimum deterrence" to "effective deterrence". Article discusses how the scope of new "effective deterrence" doctrine is not limited to "nuclear deterrence" alone and how it may play out in event of another low deniability quotient attack like 26/11. Read full article here

Monday, September 8, 2014

South Asia Monitor: India needs to up its stakes in Central Asia

India needs to have Special Forces presence in Central Asia and there is a need to expand Central Asian Strategic Corridors to ensure a stable Afghanistan. Read More Here


Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Security Lessons from Westgate Attack


As gory details of massacre at Nairobi’s Westgate Mall conducted by Somalia’s Jehadist group Al-Shabab become clearer, vulnerability of neighborhood shopping centers to such carnage is more apparent than ever before.

Terrorist attack at Nairobi’s Westgate Mall repeats some lessons which 26/11 Mumbai attacks taught us for the first time but which are still to be fully assimilated by our security establishment.

We may sharpen the preventive capabilities of our intelligence agencies to best possible limits but still terrorists will be having one in a hundred chance. Even target hardening has its limitations in view of crystallizing patterns of trans-national urban terrorism. After Parliament attack in 2001, most of the terrorist attacks in Indian hinterland came against “soft targets”. In this vast nation it is impossible to guard each and every public place.

Most of the major shopping centers today have a security drill designed to stop plantation of explosives. Private security agencies guarding these establishments as well as local policemen are ill-trained and ill-equipped to deal with highly-trained gunmen attacks like those we witnessed on 26/11 and just a few days back in Nairobi.

In event of such attacks effectively engaging the gunmen within first hour of attack is essential to minimize the loss of life and property. This role essentially falls upon local Police force which is obviously the first one to reach the spot. Special counter-terrorism battalions like National Security Guards (NSG) come into the picture at a later stage.

Afghan cities like Kabul face many attacks like 26/11 and Westgate attack every year. But Afghan security forces have been successful in minimizing the civilian casualties in such attacks due to their ability to efficaciously engage the attackers at the outset of attack which leaves them with little time to cause civilian deaths and hostage taking.

State Police forces in India need to rise up to the challenges urban terrorism is posing. A compact Quick Reaction Team (QRT), well-trained and well-equipped to deal with such attacks should be deployed at every major urban centre so that attackers may be engaged and cornered quickly. In absence of such provisioning we remain vulnerable to a Westgate Mall type of carnage.

What transpired in cyber-space during Westgate mall seize also leaves us with clues to social media management in times of crisis like these and how alert netizens can play a very important role. As Al-Shabab started to live tweet the details of horrible selective massacre its operatives were conducting at Westgate Mall, alert Kenyan twitter users started reporting this to twitter administration which blocked Al-Shabab every time it came up with a new account. Four accounts of Al-Shabab were blocked during first 24 hours of the attack and two more were blocked in following days.