Islamic State arrives in Pakistan: Implications for South Asia (South Asia Monitor: Dec 14, 2014)

Article discusses Islamic State's alliances with groups like Jundullah (Pakistan), prospects of more jehadists swearing allegiance to Islamic State, challenges IS alliances pose on tactical level and evolving threat to India and Iran. Read full article here

Time Pakistan realised futility of proxy war (South Asia Monitor: Nov 16, 2014)

Article discusses in detail the shift in India's national security policy as articulated by new NSA Ajit Doval from "credible minimum deterrence" to "effective deterrence". Article discusses how the scope of new "effective deterrence" doctrine is not limited to "nuclear deterrence" alone and how it may play out in event of another low deniability quotient attack like 26/11. Read full article here

South Asian jihadist groups in re-alignment mode (South Asia Monitor: September 28, 2014)

South Asia is witnessing heightened activities by trans-national jihadist organizations which have the capability to affect the security environment in the Indian subcontinent. Article deals in detail with the planning behind the formation of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and its role in the struggle within Pak Army. A quick look at Islamic State's South Asian franchisee as well as how groups like Indian Mujahedeen are reacting to these developments. Read full article here

IS' South Asia Affiliate releases statement in neat Hindi

Islamic State's South Asian Affiliate Ansar ul Tawhid (AuT) has released threat statements in English, Urdu and Hindi. Statements were released on group's twitter handle on the night of 18 -19 September whereby AuT vowed to avenge the death of IM terrorists in 2008 Batla House encounter in Delhi's Jamia Nagar locality.

The Hindi statement uses pure Hindi words with visible North Indian imprint.  In previous video messages released by the group, its Commander Abdur Rahman al- Hindi ( a pseudonym) may be heard talking in North Indian accent and accidentally using pure Hindi words in an otherwise Urdu speech.

This is the first statement released by this group after the announcement of Al-Qaeda's subcontinental branch by Zawahiri. But the statement does not mention anything about the announcement. But the group seems to be relatively more hawkish than before on local Indian issues like Batla House encounter.

In its previous messages group had laid more stress on call to join jihad in Syria and Iraq. In one previous message it had issued a veiled threat to Indian Security Agencies. But this time it is specific and blatant. With AQIS already launching terrorist strikes in Pakistan the group must have found itself lagging behind.

Recently, an AuT attempt to send youngsters to fight in Iraq and Syria was foiled by Indian Security Agencies.

Group seems to own the IM terrorists killed in Batla House encounter, confirming the suspicions that group is a break away faction of IM which has joined the Islamic State umbrella.

While releasing statement on Twitter, group  hash taged certain Agencies.

However, on  September 23 group noted the suspension of a jihadist forum it had been using for disseminating jehadi materials.

South Asia Monitor: India needs to up its stakes in Central Asia

India needs to have Special Forces presence in Central Asia and there is a need to expand Central Asian Strategic Corridors to ensure a stable Afghanistan. Read More Here

Iraq burns again: Unravelling of secret colonial pacts (South Asia Monitor:Jun 30, 2014)

I wrote in South Asia Monitor analyzing falling apart of Sykes-Picot plan of 1916 and rise of Sunni Caliphate in Iraq and Syria and what it means for Middle-East, South Asia, North Africa and Europe. Interestingly, the present shape of Kurd and IS holdings conform to Project for New Middle-East Map published by US Armed Forces Journal in 2006. Read More:

 South Asia Monitor: http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=8436
 Eurasia Review:  http://www.eurasiareview.com/30062014-iraq-burns-unravelling-secret-colonial-pacts-analysis/

MH17 Crash: Why India Shall Stay Away From Taking Sides

The public discourse in India on shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 seems to have almost concluded that t were pro-Russian rebels who shot it down using a Russian supplied Buk Missile and Russia is the only party to be blamed for this one of the worst human tragedies of his decade.

But wait a minute. Is Russia only party to be blamed for this disaster even if it ultimately comes out that pro-Russian rebels shot down MH17? May be not. Even if Russia supplied  rebels with Buk SAM systems, it were not meant for shooting down Civilian planes. The American argument that Russian should not have supplied such sophisticated systems to untrained handlers may lead to a foot in the mouth moment for Americans. US has armed Afghan Jehadists with Stringers which were also used against India during Kargil War. US allies like Qatar are already in dock for supplying MAN-PADS to Syrian rebels many of which also went to organizations like ISIS and we may very well expect that those arms will be put to more reckless handling . Coming to mistake part, we need not forget how in 1988, a US Frigate patrolling the Strait of Hormz shot down an Iranian Airliner killing 290 passengers.

And let's not miss the Ukrainian part. In a statement, Malaysian Airlines has said that they had filed flight plan to fly at 35000 meters but Ukraine ATC downed it to 33000 meters, just 1000 meters above the prohibited altitude.

What we need to understand that despite the shock-waves, incident has sent around the world, in Geo-political terms we have little at stake in Ukraine crisis. It is a tussle between West and a resurgent Russia from which we better stay away in view of our own interests. However, we will be putting a lot at stake if we take sides with Americans. As US is all set to leave Afghanistan, only major power with which we will have to work in Central Asia is Russia. It will be certainly a bad timing to alienate Putin.

We may take some queues from China. China's official Xinhua News Agency has termed response of US, Australia and other Western countries as "harsh"  and has called for restraint in jumping to any conclusions putting the blame on Russia without a proper investigation.

Battle of Samarra: Crucial Milestone in Shia-Sunni Conflict

As heavy fighting razes in and around Iraqi historical city of Samarra, we are gauging at an event which may prove to be a turning point in historical Shia-Sunni conflict and can carry its intensity to limits unknown to the modern world. The city houses one of the most important Shia pilgrimage site with which ISIL wants to do something of the kind Taliban did with Bamiyan Buddha.

Some reports from Arab TV channels say that ISIL fighters are already inside Samarra and controlling major portion of city. Samara's theological importance to Shias is huge. Samarra's Al-Askari mosque houses shrines of 10th and 11th Imams. It is also the place where last Shia Imam went into occultation and as per theological beliefs will return at appointed time (the belief is similar to that of Seventh Day Adventists about Jesus Christ). Al-Qaeda has targeted the mosque two times in 2006 and 2007 which had led to major ethnic clashes across Iraq. But falling of Samarra to Sunni Islamists is another thing. Anticipating the ISIL intentions in advance,three days back, Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr had called upon Shia fighters to rush to Samarra and Karbala to save the shrines. Now, highest ranking Shia cleric in Iraq has also called upon his followers to take up arms against Sunni Islmists and save the nation.

Western Media continues to report that thousands of Shia voulnteer fighters are moving towards Samarra and Iranain Quds forces are also inside Iran. We may see Muqtatad al-Sadr's Mahdi Army soming to life again in next few days which had given Americans very hard time in past. In another important development, Saudi Daily Al Watan reported that Iran has asked Hezbollah to sent its fighters to Syria so that Iraqi Shia fighters may return home to take on Sunni Islamists.

Iran's President Rouhani has spent lot of political capital on peace process with Americans. He cannot afford to be soft on Iraqi situation and Tehran would got to any limit to save the situation in Iraq. Attacks on Shias have been increasing on Iran's eastern border with Pakistan. With Taliban all set to get stronger in Afghanistan after US withdrawal, Tehran seems to be in no mood to get hemmed in between Sunni extremists from both sides. Moreover, Iran also has to sustain the Assad regime in Syria and importance of that mission has increased in light of current situation in Iraq.