Mullah Omar’s death: Pakistan’s pursuit of Strategic Stake to continue?

South Asia Monitor (Aug 12, 2015)

What Mullah Omar's death means for Jihadist world and Pak's new policy of "Strategic Stake" in Afghanistan. Read Here

Counter terrorism lessons (South Asia Monitor: Jan 22, 2015)

A closer look into urban guerrilla tactics employed by Paris attackers, their jihadists past, comparisons with Lindt Cafe incident and much more. Read More

Islamic State arrives in Pakistan: Implications for South Asia (South Asia Monitor: Dec 14, 2014)

Article discusses Islamic State's alliances with groups like Jundullah (Pakistan), prospects of more jehadists swearing allegiance to Islamic State, challenges IS alliances pose on tactical level and evolving threat to India and Iran. Read full article here

South Asian jihadist groups in re-alignment mode (South Asia Monitor: September 28, 2014)

South Asia is witnessing heightened activities by trans-national jihadist organizations which have the capability to affect the security environment in the Indian subcontinent. Article deals in detail with the planning behind the formation of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and its role in the struggle within Pak Army. A quick look at Islamic State's South Asian franchisee as well as how groups like Indian Mujahedeen are reacting to these developments. Read full article here

IS' South Asia Affiliate releases statement in neat Hindi

Islamic State's South Asian Affiliate Ansar ul Tawhid (AuT) has released threat statements in English, Urdu and Hindi. Statements were released on group's twitter handle on the night of 18 -19 September whereby AuT vowed to avenge the death of IM terrorists in 2008 Batla House encounter in Delhi's Jamia Nagar locality.

The Hindi statement uses pure Hindi words with visible North Indian imprint.  In previous video messages released by the group, its Commander Abdur Rahman al- Hindi ( a pseudonym) may be heard talking in North Indian accent and accidentally using pure Hindi words in an otherwise Urdu speech.

This is the first statement released by this group after the announcement of Al-Qaeda's subcontinental branch by Zawahiri. But the statement does not mention anything about the announcement. But the group seems to be relatively more hawkish than before on local Indian issues like Batla House encounter.

In its previous messages group had laid more stress on call to join jihad in Syria and Iraq. In one previous message it had issued a veiled threat to Indian Security Agencies. But this time it is specific and blatant. With AQIS already launching terrorist strikes in Pakistan the group must have found itself lagging behind.

Recently, an AuT attempt to send youngsters to fight in Iraq and Syria was foiled by Indian Security Agencies.

Group seems to own the IM terrorists killed in Batla House encounter, confirming the suspicions that group is a break away faction of IM which has joined the Islamic State umbrella.

While releasing statement on Twitter, group  hash taged certain Agencies.

However, on  September 23 group noted the suspension of a jihadist forum it had been using for disseminating jehadi materials.

Battle of Samarra: Crucial Milestone in Shia-Sunni Conflict

As heavy fighting razes in and around Iraqi historical city of Samarra, we are gauging at an event which may prove to be a turning point in historical Shia-Sunni conflict and can carry its intensity to limits unknown to the modern world. The city houses one of the most important Shia pilgrimage site with which ISIL wants to do something of the kind Taliban did with Bamiyan Buddha.

Some reports from Arab TV channels say that ISIL fighters are already inside Samarra and controlling major portion of city. Samara's theological importance to Shias is huge. Samarra's Al-Askari mosque houses shrines of 10th and 11th Imams. It is also the place where last Shia Imam went into occultation and as per theological beliefs will return at appointed time (the belief is similar to that of Seventh Day Adventists about Jesus Christ). Al-Qaeda has targeted the mosque two times in 2006 and 2007 which had led to major ethnic clashes across Iraq. But falling of Samarra to Sunni Islamists is another thing. Anticipating the ISIL intentions in advance,three days back, Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr had called upon Shia fighters to rush to Samarra and Karbala to save the shrines. Now, highest ranking Shia cleric in Iraq has also called upon his followers to take up arms against Sunni Islmists and save the nation.

Western Media continues to report that thousands of Shia voulnteer fighters are moving towards Samarra and Iranain Quds forces are also inside Iran. We may see Muqtatad al-Sadr's Mahdi Army soming to life again in next few days which had given Americans very hard time in past. In another important development, Saudi Daily Al Watan reported that Iran has asked Hezbollah to sent its fighters to Syria so that Iraqi Shia fighters may return home to take on Sunni Islamists.

Iran's President Rouhani has spent lot of political capital on peace process with Americans. He cannot afford to be soft on Iraqi situation and Tehran would got to any limit to save the situation in Iraq. Attacks on Shias have been increasing on Iran's eastern border with Pakistan. With Taliban all set to get stronger in Afghanistan after US withdrawal, Tehran seems to be in no mood to get hemmed in between Sunni extremists from both sides. Moreover, Iran also has to sustain the Assad regime in Syria and importance of that mission has increased in light of current situation in Iraq.

A Twist in the Middle-East Tale

By talking over phone President Obama and Iran’s newly elected President Rouhani may have started to spell the new equations which have the potential of simplifying the extremely complicated geo-politics of middle-east. This historic rapprochement between West and the Iran will have long-term soothing effect on highly volatile situation in post-Arab spring era.

An acrimonious relationship with Iran makes US devote much of its energy in Middle-East to futile activities which do not help any of its long-term strategic goals nor do in any way contribute to global security scenario. George Bush’s inclusion of Iran to “axis of evil” phraseology only complicated and delayed US war efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

As US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and thereafter Iraq in 2003, a hemmed Iran naturally found itself vulnerable. Washington’s hostile attitude further worsened the situation and allowed radicals in Iran to rise to power.

Iran had a stake in toppling of Taliban regime in Afghanistan which was extremely hostile to Iranian interests. When Taliban came to power in Kabul in 1996, it made all attempts to curtail Iranian influence in Afghanistan. Large scale selective killings of Shias were organized by the Taliban government. Iranian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif was attacked and ten Iranian diplomats were killed. Iran had to amass 300,000 troops on its border with Afghanistan threatening to punish the Taliban regime.

However, Bush’s axis of evil rhetoric forced Iran to covertly help the Taliban after post-9/11 invasion of Afghanistan by US so as to keep US military engaged and stretched. Similar things also transpired in Iraq. Saddam Hussein was Iran’s sworn enemy but after fall of Saddam regime Iran had to initially work at cross-purposes to US to keep US forces at bay. Things stabilized in Iraq only after Washington realized that a head on approach against Iranian clients will not be helpful. Ultimately Iranian covert co-operation in quelling the violence allowed US to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan which is scheduled next year will bring back things to per-9/11 era. There will be no substantial US military presence either in Iraq or Afghanistan. On the other hand, Iran will be faced with a resurgent Al- Qaeda on its west in Iraq which aims to push that nation into civil war and a hostile Taliban which will try to destabilize Afghanistan staking claims to power in Kabul to its East. All this has serious implications for Iranian interests in the region.

A glimpse of approaching turbulence is already visible. Pakistan’s tribal areas witnessed some of the most ghastly attacks mounted on Shias ever. At the same time, a terrorist group named Jundullah founded by Abdul Malik Rigi, who was a former Taliban commander and operates from Pakistani territory sprung into action after many years and killed sixteen Iranian border guards. In Iraq, Al-Qaeda’s activities are recording an exponential increase.

After UN sponsored chemical weapons deal with Assad regime, Iranian and US priorities are changing fast bringing them into cohesion. Going forward Washington will be increasingly focused on checking resurgence of Al-Qaeda and allied groups in the Islamic world. Similarly, these groups are emerging as greater threats to Iranian interests in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan than the West.

Al-Qaeda's Direct Threats To India

In a recent video message obtained and translated by Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Al-Qaeda's Propaganda Chief  in Pakistan, Ustad Ahmad Farroq has declared that 'The War That Is Underway In The [Pakistani] Tribal Area Is The Battle For The Future Of The Whole Of [The Indian] Subcontinent'. 

This one is latest in series of direct threats to India from Al-Qaeda's top leadership based in Pakistan. Such threats are being regularly issued as deadline of US military withdrawal is approaching nearer. This new trend began in July, 2012 when Farman Ali Shinwari on being appointed as Al-Qaeda's Chief Operational Commander in Pakistan pledged "full support" to  terrorist groups active in Kashmir. Shinwari is a former member of Hurkat-ul-Mujahideen and is believed to have good rapport with various millitant groups active in Kashmir valley.

In March, 2013, another commander of Al-Qaeda military wing Asmatullah Muawiya threatened India over execution of Azmal Kasab and Afzal Guru and vowed to target India once the US forces leave Afghanistan. In June, Al Qaeda leader Maulana Asim Umar who is considered part of Al-Qaeda think-tank in Pakistan, released a video message inviting Indian Muslims to join jehad. This message again contained references to US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and warned of increased terrorist activities in India. In this message, Asim Umar also disclosed  dispatching of millitants to Syria which are now being confirmed by ground reports from Syria.These messages also have references to Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Myanmar and repeatedly refer to various SAARC and ASEAN countries.

While Al-Qaeda has no direct presence in India, nor is there any evidence of any recruitment drive carried out in India so far, it has always taken much interest in terrorist activities in India. While it is widley believed that Al Qaeda's Brigade 313 Commander Ilyas Kashmiri played an important role in orchestrating 26/11 attacks, last year Hindustan Times reported quoting former US C-T Officer Bruce Reidel that evidence collected from Abbottabad compound by US SEALS suggests that Osama Bin Laden might have seen the Headley surveillance tapes and Al-Qaeda had a more direct role in planning of 26/11 attacks.

Many analysts have seen Asim Umar's latest message as Al-Qaeda's frustration on account of lack Indians in its ranks. However, it must be borne in mind that Al-Qaeda has never directly got involved in ground operations in India and has always abetted and co-ordinated such attacks through its affiliates like LeT and JeM.Thus Asim Umar's message is to be seen less as an attempt to recruit Indian muslims and more as an indication of policy formulation process which is underway in Al-Qaeda's core leadership with regard to redeployment of human resources across South Asia and Middle East after US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Recently, another Al-Qaeda affiliate, HUJI has declared sending millitants to Myanmar. All this is part of Al-Qaeda's larger trans-national strategy of capitalizing over local issues in various SAARC and ASEAN countries. Due to historical and cultural linkages of South Asian countries a danger of spilling over of violence from one country to another always remains. Recent blasts in Mahabodhi Temple in Bodh Gaya may be part of this new pattern.

This also clearly indicate that Al-Qaeda's vision for South Asia and Middle East is being clearly followed by its affiliates in their operations and deployments. The pre-declaration of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has enabled groups like HUJI and TTP to send millitants to Syria and Myanmar. India should maintain a close watch on these patterns as some kind of escalation in terrorist activities in India may be expected even before US troop withdrawal in 2014.