Obama-Nawaz Joint Statement: Charade and Reality

Oct 30, 2015/ South Asia Monitor

Pakistan’s terror infrastructure can not be dismantled in half or one fourth or two-third as it derives its life blood from a radicalized society having a craving for all around religious war and an unitary radicalization infrastructure that provide terror recruits to carry out war by terrorism against both India and Afghanistan. Read full analysis of Obama-Nawaz Joint Statement here

 

Afghan peace process: Marred by short-sightedness (South Asia Monitor: March 12, 2015)

"The new peace process conceived by President Ashraf Ghani ultimately aims at reaching a power sharing deal with the Afghan Taliban. This latest peace process is as superficial as the previous ones because it does not demand an ideological course correction from Taliban. The Afghan Taliban remains committed to ultra-radical version of Deobandi Islam and had championed a barbaric medieval theocratic state in Afghanistan during its days in power where public flogging, stoning, beheadings and iconoclasm were perpetrated by the state machinery. Today the Islamic State is repeating just that in Iraq and Syria."

"The importance of such an ideological declaration is evident from the experience of Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. Though the Muslim Brotherhood had renounced the use of violent means to achieve political ends as early as 1949 and was a key participant in the Tahrir Square agitation against the Hosni Mubarak regime, when it came to power after participating in the 2012 presidential elections it was soon found trying to impose an Islamist Constitution and its members were found to be indulging in attacks on Christians and other minorities. Leading Middle East expert Yasmine El Rashidi described this as an “Islamist Coup”. Soon Egypt’s powerful military had to intervene to save the country from plunging into utter chaos. All this happened because despite giving up violence and participating in the electoral process, the Muslim Brotherhood remained ideologically committed to the cause of establishing a theocratic Islamist State." Read Full Article Here

Islamic State arrives in Pakistan: Implications for South Asia (South Asia Monitor: Dec 14, 2014)

Article discusses Islamic State's alliances with groups like Jundullah (Pakistan), prospects of more jehadists swearing allegiance to Islamic State, challenges IS alliances pose on tactical level and evolving threat to India and Iran. Read full article here

South Asian jihadist groups in re-alignment mode (South Asia Monitor: September 28, 2014)

South Asia is witnessing heightened activities by trans-national jihadist organizations which have the capability to affect the security environment in the Indian subcontinent. Article deals in detail with the planning behind the formation of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and its role in the struggle within Pak Army. A quick look at Islamic State's South Asian franchisee as well as how groups like Indian Mujahedeen are reacting to these developments. Read full article here

IS' South Asia Affiliate releases statement in neat Hindi

Islamic State's South Asian Affiliate Ansar ul Tawhid (AuT) has released threat statements in English, Urdu and Hindi. Statements were released on group's twitter handle on the night of 18 -19 September whereby AuT vowed to avenge the death of IM terrorists in 2008 Batla House encounter in Delhi's Jamia Nagar locality.

The Hindi statement uses pure Hindi words with visible North Indian imprint.  In previous video messages released by the group, its Commander Abdur Rahman al- Hindi ( a pseudonym) may be heard talking in North Indian accent and accidentally using pure Hindi words in an otherwise Urdu speech.

This is the first statement released by this group after the announcement of Al-Qaeda's subcontinental branch by Zawahiri. But the statement does not mention anything about the announcement. But the group seems to be relatively more hawkish than before on local Indian issues like Batla House encounter.

In its previous messages group had laid more stress on call to join jihad in Syria and Iraq. In one previous message it had issued a veiled threat to Indian Security Agencies. But this time it is specific and blatant. With AQIS already launching terrorist strikes in Pakistan the group must have found itself lagging behind.

Recently, an AuT attempt to send youngsters to fight in Iraq and Syria was foiled by Indian Security Agencies.

Group seems to own the IM terrorists killed in Batla House encounter, confirming the suspicions that group is a break away faction of IM which has joined the Islamic State umbrella.

While releasing statement on Twitter, group  hash taged certain Agencies.

However, on  September 23 group noted the suspension of a jihadist forum it had been using for disseminating jehadi materials.

Iraq burns again: Unravelling of secret colonial pacts (South Asia Monitor:Jun 30, 2014)

I wrote in South Asia Monitor analyzing falling apart of Sykes-Picot plan of 1916 and rise of Sunni Caliphate in Iraq and Syria and what it means for Middle-East, South Asia, North Africa and Europe. Interestingly, the present shape of Kurd and IS holdings conform to Project for New Middle-East Map published by US Armed Forces Journal in 2006. Read More:

 South Asia Monitor: http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=8436
 Eurasia Review:  http://www.eurasiareview.com/30062014-iraq-burns-unravelling-secret-colonial-pacts-analysis/

Al-Qaeda's Direct Threats To India

In a recent video message obtained and translated by Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Al-Qaeda's Propaganda Chief  in Pakistan, Ustad Ahmad Farroq has declared that 'The War That Is Underway In The [Pakistani] Tribal Area Is The Battle For The Future Of The Whole Of [The Indian] Subcontinent'. 

This one is latest in series of direct threats to India from Al-Qaeda's top leadership based in Pakistan. Such threats are being regularly issued as deadline of US military withdrawal is approaching nearer. This new trend began in July, 2012 when Farman Ali Shinwari on being appointed as Al-Qaeda's Chief Operational Commander in Pakistan pledged "full support" to  terrorist groups active in Kashmir. Shinwari is a former member of Hurkat-ul-Mujahideen and is believed to have good rapport with various millitant groups active in Kashmir valley.

In March, 2013, another commander of Al-Qaeda military wing Asmatullah Muawiya threatened India over execution of Azmal Kasab and Afzal Guru and vowed to target India once the US forces leave Afghanistan. In June, Al Qaeda leader Maulana Asim Umar who is considered part of Al-Qaeda think-tank in Pakistan, released a video message inviting Indian Muslims to join jehad. This message again contained references to US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and warned of increased terrorist activities in India. In this message, Asim Umar also disclosed  dispatching of millitants to Syria which are now being confirmed by ground reports from Syria.These messages also have references to Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Myanmar and repeatedly refer to various SAARC and ASEAN countries.

While Al-Qaeda has no direct presence in India, nor is there any evidence of any recruitment drive carried out in India so far, it has always taken much interest in terrorist activities in India. While it is widley believed that Al Qaeda's Brigade 313 Commander Ilyas Kashmiri played an important role in orchestrating 26/11 attacks, last year Hindustan Times reported quoting former US C-T Officer Bruce Reidel that evidence collected from Abbottabad compound by US SEALS suggests that Osama Bin Laden might have seen the Headley surveillance tapes and Al-Qaeda had a more direct role in planning of 26/11 attacks.

Many analysts have seen Asim Umar's latest message as Al-Qaeda's frustration on account of lack Indians in its ranks. However, it must be borne in mind that Al-Qaeda has never directly got involved in ground operations in India and has always abetted and co-ordinated such attacks through its affiliates like LeT and JeM.Thus Asim Umar's message is to be seen less as an attempt to recruit Indian muslims and more as an indication of policy formulation process which is underway in Al-Qaeda's core leadership with regard to redeployment of human resources across South Asia and Middle East after US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Recently, another Al-Qaeda affiliate, HUJI has declared sending millitants to Myanmar. All this is part of Al-Qaeda's larger trans-national strategy of capitalizing over local issues in various SAARC and ASEAN countries. Due to historical and cultural linkages of South Asian countries a danger of spilling over of violence from one country to another always remains. Recent blasts in Mahabodhi Temple in Bodh Gaya may be part of this new pattern.

This also clearly indicate that Al-Qaeda's vision for South Asia and Middle East is being clearly followed by its affiliates in their operations and deployments. The pre-declaration of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has enabled groups like HUJI and TTP to send millitants to Syria and Myanmar. India should maintain a close watch on these patterns as some kind of escalation in terrorist activities in India may be expected even before US troop withdrawal in 2014.