Obama-Nawaz Joint Statement: Charade and Reality

Oct 30, 2015/ South Asia Monitor

Pakistan’s terror infrastructure can not be dismantled in half or one fourth or two-third as it derives its life blood from a radicalized society having a craving for all around religious war and an unitary radicalization infrastructure that provide terror recruits to carry out war by terrorism against both India and Afghanistan. Read full analysis of Obama-Nawaz Joint Statement here

 

Nepal: Why India should ensure a Stable Madhes

Oct 16, 2015/ South Asia Monitor

Strategic importance of Madhes for India as well as Nepal analysed from historical, geographical and cultural perspective. And why Nepal Hill Elite developing liaisons with China leaves Madhes as last buffer for India. Read full article here

Gurdaspur attack: Pakistan expanding the theatre of proxy war?

South Asia Monitor (Aug 4, 2015)

Read how Pakistan has tried to revive Khalistani Militancy in Punjab by commissioning targeted killings, ISI's plans for Punjab and what is enabling Pakistan to expand theatre of Proxy War. Read Here

Modi-Sharif Meeting:New benchmarks but caveats remain

South Asia Monitor (In focus) (Jul 14, 2015)

Read why absence of the term "composite dialogue" from Ufa Joint Statement is more important that the absence of word Kashmir, how Modi Government played safe at Ufa and how threshold of negative conduct by Pakistan stands lowered. Read full article here

Modi's Central Asia Visit: Russia could welcome the India Factor

 South Asia Monitor (Jun 12, 2015)

Modi's Central Asia Visit analysed in global security and strategic backdrop with special focus on Afghanistan. And why emergence of India as a player in Central Asia presents an opportunity to Russia to balance out things vis-a-vis China. Read more

Indian makes a smart move in Central Asia (South Asia Monitor: Apr 23, 2015)

Good ‪#‎economic‬ relations with ‪#‎Turkmenistan‬ allows India to tap into Central Asia’s rich natural resources where it can also act as a major balancing factor between competing powers like ‪#‎Russia‬, ‪#‎China‬ and ‪#‎US‬.  Iran is the only secure and stable gateway for India to trade with Central Asia, and Turkmenistan has the potential to form the next link in the strategic chain. Read More

Afghan peace process: Marred by short-sightedness (South Asia Monitor: March 12, 2015)

"The new peace process conceived by President Ashraf Ghani ultimately aims at reaching a power sharing deal with the Afghan Taliban. This latest peace process is as superficial as the previous ones because it does not demand an ideological course correction from Taliban. The Afghan Taliban remains committed to ultra-radical version of Deobandi Islam and had championed a barbaric medieval theocratic state in Afghanistan during its days in power where public flogging, stoning, beheadings and iconoclasm were perpetrated by the state machinery. Today the Islamic State is repeating just that in Iraq and Syria."

"The importance of such an ideological declaration is evident from the experience of Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. Though the Muslim Brotherhood had renounced the use of violent means to achieve political ends as early as 1949 and was a key participant in the Tahrir Square agitation against the Hosni Mubarak regime, when it came to power after participating in the 2012 presidential elections it was soon found trying to impose an Islamist Constitution and its members were found to be indulging in attacks on Christians and other minorities. Leading Middle East expert Yasmine El Rashidi described this as an “Islamist Coup”. Soon Egypt’s powerful military had to intervene to save the country from plunging into utter chaos. All this happened because despite giving up violence and participating in the electoral process, the Muslim Brotherhood remained ideologically committed to the cause of establishing a theocratic Islamist State." Read Full Article Here

Mufti’s Uncommon Maximal Programme

Swarajya Mag (March 11, 2015)

"Technically, the issue of dialogue should not have formed part of the CMP text, as foreign policy is not a state subject, and it has been India’s well articulated longstanding position that all issues with Pakistan are to be sorted out bilaterally. The state government cannot have a say in our Pakistan policy. The BJP should have asked Mufti to be satisfied with the fact that talks are being reopened and forget about having it mentioned in the CMP. The very mention of the ‘P’ word in CMP allowed Mufti to give credit to that country’s role in offering a “conducive atmosphere” for polls." Read More

Islamic State arrives in Pakistan: Implications for South Asia (South Asia Monitor: Dec 14, 2014)

Article discusses Islamic State's alliances with groups like Jundullah (Pakistan), prospects of more jehadists swearing allegiance to Islamic State, challenges IS alliances pose on tactical level and evolving threat to India and Iran. Read full article here

Time Pakistan realised futility of proxy war (South Asia Monitor: Nov 16, 2014)

Article discusses in detail the shift in India's national security policy as articulated by new NSA Ajit Doval from "credible minimum deterrence" to "effective deterrence". Article discusses how the scope of new "effective deterrence" doctrine is not limited to "nuclear deterrence" alone and how it may play out in event of another low deniability quotient attack like 26/11. Read full article here

MH17 Crash: Why India Shall Stay Away From Taking Sides

The public discourse in India on shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 seems to have almost concluded that t were pro-Russian rebels who shot it down using a Russian supplied Buk Missile and Russia is the only party to be blamed for this one of the worst human tragedies of his decade.

But wait a minute. Is Russia only party to be blamed for this disaster even if it ultimately comes out that pro-Russian rebels shot down MH17? May be not. Even if Russia supplied  rebels with Buk SAM systems, it were not meant for shooting down Civilian planes. The American argument that Russian should not have supplied such sophisticated systems to untrained handlers may lead to a foot in the mouth moment for Americans. US has armed Afghan Jehadists with Stringers which were also used against India during Kargil War. US allies like Qatar are already in dock for supplying MAN-PADS to Syrian rebels many of which also went to organizations like ISIS and we may very well expect that those arms will be put to more reckless handling . Coming to mistake part, we need not forget how in 1988, a US Frigate patrolling the Strait of Hormz shot down an Iranian Airliner killing 290 passengers.

And let's not miss the Ukrainian part. In a statement, Malaysian Airlines has said that they had filed flight plan to fly at 35000 meters but Ukraine ATC downed it to 33000 meters, just 1000 meters above the prohibited altitude.

What we need to understand that despite the shock-waves, incident has sent around the world, in Geo-political terms we have little at stake in Ukraine crisis. It is a tussle between West and a resurgent Russia from which we better stay away in view of our own interests. However, we will be putting a lot at stake if we take sides with Americans. As US is all set to leave Afghanistan, only major power with which we will have to work in Central Asia is Russia. It will be certainly a bad timing to alienate Putin.

We may take some queues from China. China's official Xinhua News Agency has termed response of US, Australia and other Western countries as "harsh"  and has called for restraint in jumping to any conclusions putting the blame on Russia without a proper investigation.

Emergence of Qatar as Track Two Player and India's Afghanistan Policy

From hosting Doha talks between US and Taliban to covertly supporting rebels in Libya and Syria, Qatar has been trying to increase its clout in Islamic world by leveraging its strategic importance in Middle-East. Qatar houses US CENCOM and has world's third largest natural gas reserves. Though Washington has often came to war of words with Doha on Al-Zazeera, Qatar continues to be a country of increasing importance in its Middle-East policy.

Due to the efforts of Qatar's erstwhile emir ,who was described by a recent BBC report as "Middle-East's Kissinger", Doha has become a hub of track two diplomacy in Middle-East. Even in military terms, Qatar's importance has been increasing ever since Bush administration decided to vacate Saudi bases.

Ironically, Qatar gains wherever Saudis loose. Saudi relations with Taliban have been progressively deteriorating since 1998, when Mullah Omar went back on his promises of handing over Bin Laden to Saudis. Saudi attempts to broker peace in Afghanistan failed badly in 2008-09 because many Northern Alliance leaders as well as Taliban factions were not ready to accept Saudi mediation. All this helped Qatar to become Taliban's diplomatic patron and many Taliban representatives are now permanently stationed in Doha.

Qatar also backed Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt which has a history of bad relations with Riyadh. Saudi Royals have always seen Brotherhood as a potent political threat to their regime. Though with the toppling of Morsi government by Egyptian Army, Saudis are back in game, nevertheless, Qatar remains a key player in Egypt as at some point political rapprochement with Muslim Brotherhood is unavoidable for the new Egyptian regime and there are already voices from inside the new government criticising the Egyptian Army's high handedness in dealing with Brotherhood protests.  Furthermore, there are fears of Salafists and Al-Qaeda taking advantage of current situation in Egypt and echos are starting to come out of Washington with Senator McCain describing the toppling of Morsi regime as a "coup".

Though many analysts saw happenings in Egypt as an endgame for tiny Qatar's participation in heavyweight diplomacy, the above noted developments suggest otherwise. It is true that overthrowing of Morsi government by Egyptian Army was bit of a setback for Qatar which was in power transition mode, but Qatar's new Emir is smartly trying to salvage the situation by trying rapprochement with Riyadh.

After backing rebels in Libya, Qatar has also emerged as a key player in Syrian conflict and have been shrugging off US and Saudi concerns about shipping shoulder fired heat seeking missiles to Syrian rebels.

Qatar continues to have close contacts with other side of Islamic world and with its strategic location and petrodollars, it is likely to remain a track two hub in foreseeable future.

India has a strategic partnership with Qatar. Two countries had signed Defence Co-operation Agreement in 2008 which provides for close military co-operation and joint defence production. This partnership is important for Qatar as it seeks to diversify its dependence on US in military terms. New Delhi should try to revitalize its relations with Doha. India needs to come to terms with the prospective ground situation in Afghanistan after US troop withdrawal in 2014 and thus, shall keep open some sort of back channel with Taliban. What makes this track two channel even more necessary is the perception that India may have to face typical security situations in Afghanistan. The new Nawaz Sharif Government has close relations with Saudis and Saudis are also likely to play on Pakistani line as due to their unacceptability in Afghanistan they are left with little room for having independent choices. This situation may be utilized by India for its advantage in Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda's Direct Threats To India

In a recent video message obtained and translated by Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Al-Qaeda's Propaganda Chief  in Pakistan, Ustad Ahmad Farroq has declared that 'The War That Is Underway In The [Pakistani] Tribal Area Is The Battle For The Future Of The Whole Of [The Indian] Subcontinent'. 

This one is latest in series of direct threats to India from Al-Qaeda's top leadership based in Pakistan. Such threats are being regularly issued as deadline of US military withdrawal is approaching nearer. This new trend began in July, 2012 when Farman Ali Shinwari on being appointed as Al-Qaeda's Chief Operational Commander in Pakistan pledged "full support" to  terrorist groups active in Kashmir. Shinwari is a former member of Hurkat-ul-Mujahideen and is believed to have good rapport with various millitant groups active in Kashmir valley.

In March, 2013, another commander of Al-Qaeda military wing Asmatullah Muawiya threatened India over execution of Azmal Kasab and Afzal Guru and vowed to target India once the US forces leave Afghanistan. In June, Al Qaeda leader Maulana Asim Umar who is considered part of Al-Qaeda think-tank in Pakistan, released a video message inviting Indian Muslims to join jehad. This message again contained references to US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and warned of increased terrorist activities in India. In this message, Asim Umar also disclosed  dispatching of millitants to Syria which are now being confirmed by ground reports from Syria.These messages also have references to Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Myanmar and repeatedly refer to various SAARC and ASEAN countries.

While Al-Qaeda has no direct presence in India, nor is there any evidence of any recruitment drive carried out in India so far, it has always taken much interest in terrorist activities in India. While it is widley believed that Al Qaeda's Brigade 313 Commander Ilyas Kashmiri played an important role in orchestrating 26/11 attacks, last year Hindustan Times reported quoting former US C-T Officer Bruce Reidel that evidence collected from Abbottabad compound by US SEALS suggests that Osama Bin Laden might have seen the Headley surveillance tapes and Al-Qaeda had a more direct role in planning of 26/11 attacks.

Many analysts have seen Asim Umar's latest message as Al-Qaeda's frustration on account of lack Indians in its ranks. However, it must be borne in mind that Al-Qaeda has never directly got involved in ground operations in India and has always abetted and co-ordinated such attacks through its affiliates like LeT and JeM.Thus Asim Umar's message is to be seen less as an attempt to recruit Indian muslims and more as an indication of policy formulation process which is underway in Al-Qaeda's core leadership with regard to redeployment of human resources across South Asia and Middle East after US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Recently, another Al-Qaeda affiliate, HUJI has declared sending millitants to Myanmar. All this is part of Al-Qaeda's larger trans-national strategy of capitalizing over local issues in various SAARC and ASEAN countries. Due to historical and cultural linkages of South Asian countries a danger of spilling over of violence from one country to another always remains. Recent blasts in Mahabodhi Temple in Bodh Gaya may be part of this new pattern.

This also clearly indicate that Al-Qaeda's vision for South Asia and Middle East is being clearly followed by its affiliates in their operations and deployments. The pre-declaration of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has enabled groups like HUJI and TTP to send millitants to Syria and Myanmar. India should maintain a close watch on these patterns as some kind of escalation in terrorist activities in India may be expected even before US troop withdrawal in 2014.