Myanmar Operation: Why Pakistan is so rattled

South Asia Monitor and Indian Defence Review (19/20 June, 2015)

Read why Pakistan's much sported small nuclear weapons can't deter India from a Special Forces action in POK, how India's current Nuclear Doctrine will play out if Pak tries using small nukes. And Pak Generals know that. A Myanmar kind of Operation inside POK, even a small one, can cost Pak Army its domestic clout and Much More

Time Pakistan realised futility of proxy war (South Asia Monitor: Nov 16, 2014)

Article discusses in detail the shift in India's national security policy as articulated by new NSA Ajit Doval from "credible minimum deterrence" to "effective deterrence". Article discusses how the scope of new "effective deterrence" doctrine is not limited to "nuclear deterrence" alone and how it may play out in event of another low deniability quotient attack like 26/11. Read full article here

How Infiltrators managed to retreat from Shala Bhata

In an interview with Hindustan Times, GOC XV Corps has admitted that his boys have neither recovered a single dead body nor any equipment belonging to infiltrators from inside the cordon area in Shala Bhata village in Keran Sector.

Though it was very clear since Oct 2 when for the first time Indian Army broke this news to the nation, that Pakistani Border Action Team (BAT) was trying to break the Indian cordon to rescue the infiltrators trapped inside the cordon. I have dealt with this new tactic in detail in one of my previous posts.

But what constitutes a big surprise is the fact that Pak BAT seems to have been fully successful in its attempt to effectively engage and pierce the Indian cordon. This could not have been possible without a large scale rescue effort by Pakistanis supported by heavy ammunition support, exceeding the ceasefire norms thrust upon the Indian Army.

If one is to go by statements of GOC XV Corps it becomes clear that Pak BAT was repeatedly trying to "round up" the outer flanks of the cordon. This is a classic medieval technique having a guerilla element with Central Asian origins which has turned the tide of numerous battles fought over last ten centuries in Indian sub-continent.  The peripheries of cordon touching the LoC made it further vulnerable.

But the key question relates not to the ability of Indian Army to deal with such situations but with political will. Our army is fully capable to deal with such tactics. But that requires aggressive tactical manoeuvring backed with clear political directions. The way Shala Bhata infiltration was kept pressed under the carpet for nine days to allow PM Manmohan Singh to meet Nawaz Sharif says everything. Another notable point is that any strong reaction from political leadership in India over Shala Bhata incident has been missing.

The peace at any cost policy will put Indian Army at a serious disadvantage in this cruel quest for domination along LoC. This will naturally have consequences for security environment in J&K as well as in larger strategic context as Pak Army is likely to progressively heat-up the LoC in run up to US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in order to redeploy its strategic assets returning fro Afghanistan.

Assessment of Situation in Shala Bhata

India tried a tiny talk with Nawaz Sharif and is now faced with a tiny Kargil. From what we know now that is how we can define the situation in Shala Bhata in Keran. Indian troops are locked in a close fight with Pak special troopers from its notorious Border Action Team for the ninth day.

Though Infiltrators in Shala Bhata do not enjoy effective control but area is still far from being "secured" by the Indian Army.Most alarming thing coming out of the Press Conference of GoC XV Corps is that Pak BATs are constantly trying to break the Indian Army's cordon from Pakistani side which means a complicated situation.

This also explains in part as to how all this may have happened. The first batch of infiltrators crossing on 23rd September were effectively intercepted by the Indian army. It is very clear that more compact batches were pushed later and Indian cordon was engaged by Pak BAT. This is in contrast with previous experiences when infiltrators once pushed inside Indian territory used to be "abandoned".

However, this time Pak BATs are trying to attack and break through the Indian cordon on Indian side of LoC even on the ninth day. This indicates two things- first, infiltrators trapped inside Indian cordon are no ordinary infiltrators; second, Pakistani side has something more than a mere big infiltration attempt on their minds. This is not just another area domination attempt with tactical overtones but confrontational attitude with political undercurrents. To deal with such a situation some aggressive tactical manoeuvring by the Indian troops will be required. A clear political message is pre-requisite for that.

Avoid Peace Trap set by Pakistan

Hindustan Times, 22 Aug 2013

In India, the debate over our Pakistan Policy swings between two extremes of jingoism and over-enthusiasm affording us little opportunity to examine on merits the peace proposals which are conceptualized through track two diplomatic channels.

While during track two dialogue Indian side has repeatedly rejected Pakistan’s proposals of “redrawing of borders” and “joint administration of Kashmir valley”, the idea of making the LoC “irrelevant” has fascinated many in India.

It has often been argued that India-Pak peace process shall be de-linked from terrorism as various terrorist groups operating from Pak soil have vested interests in sabotaging it. Though there may be some truth in this but without going into debate surrounding this argument we shall take it up on practical terms. Making borders irrelevant for achieving peace in Kashmir involves withdrawal of both the armies from LoC and relaxation of restrictions on free movement of people across the LoC. Such a scenario will be disadvantageous to India as long as terrorist infrastructure remains intact on Pakistan’s side of LoC. Pakistan will be able to pursue its strategic aims in Kashmir valley by unleashing the jehadi machine it controls as well as by stoking trouble through separatists in Kashmir valley who are increasingly working in synchronization with ISI’s policies and openly sharing stage with jehadists like Hafiz Saeed.

Out of the four wars Pakistan fought with India, three broke out due to Pakistan’s attempts to militarily redraw its borders with India, either directly or through its proxies. While in 1947 Pakistan pushed tribals into Kashmir valley, in 1965 Pak Army itself came dressed as ‘Rajakars’. Kargil war also was a Pak Army- Mujahideen joint operation to shift the LoC. Even in Siachen we had a close shave in 1984 when an intelligence tip-off alerted us just in time about Pakistani plans to occupy the glacier in a Kargil kind of perfidy.

As all these attempts failed badly, Gen Musharraf started to lure India into this “irrelevant border” trap. Indian leadership encouraged by deescalating militancy in Kashmir and fall in cross-border infiltration attempts after 2003 ceasefire has been responsive to this proposal.

Pakistan has always tried to break free of Shimla Agreement which Zulfikar Bhutto had described to be as humiliating to Pakistan as Treaty of Versailles was for Germany. After Kargil debacle and in post 9/11 conditions Pakistan’s Kashmir policy rests on stoking internal unrest in Kashmir and somehow securing some concessions from India on diplomatic table which in effect neutralizes the Shimla Agreement and allow it to create a 1948 kind of situation. Therefore while Pak leadership makes all the right noises on Indo-Pak talks, it continues to maintain the terrorist infrastructure aimed against India on its soil.

The reliability of diplomatic accords which we sign with Pakistan has always been poor. Pakistan has always flouted Shimla agreement, buried the Lahore Joint Statement in Kargil and continues to flout Jan 2004 joint statement. Pakistan will miss no opportunity to exploit an irrelevant LoC by pushing in jehadis, stoking secessionism and again calling for international intervention.

Dismantling of terrorist infrastructure on Pak soil must remain necessary pre-condition of any meaningful and sustainable dialogue. Lasting peace like an embryo must pass through sequential stages. Any attempt to change the sequence is sure to result in disaster.

(The writer is a national security analyst.)